The Next Middle East

Because of globalization, the genie (i.e. democracy and internet) that is now out of the bottle will never return to its prison. It would rather grant three wishes than return to its bottle. Ironically, the same is also true in the Middle East. For decades, monarchy and totalitarianism was tolerated because of the promise and lure of middle class prosperity.

The party could have lasted a little bit longer were it not for the other side effects of globalization. Education exposed the citizens of Middle East to the freedom that the rest of the world is enjoying - initially, such is tolerable (middle class comfort in lieu of freedom) but in the long stride of evolution, freedom (democracy) will eventually have its say in the Middle East history.

From Yemen to Egypt and eventually - in Saudi Arabia, democracy will infect its citizens. Sooner of later, Saudi Arabia will become a democracy. The transformation will be written in blood but eventually, the inevitable will still happen.

The risk here is that along with the democracy comes instability. Instability in the Middle East results in worldwide economic fluctuations. The sad reality here is that economist as well as western politicians will always opt for the status quo, the mentality being that people will always operate under their sphere of comfort zone (i.e. convenient theory), and the same is also true in economics as well as in politics. The paradox in this equation is that the current power in the Middle East as well as some westerns powers will vie for the status quo so as not to upset the beneficiaries of the current scenario.

So what is next for the Middle East?

Ironically, China offers a model. Because of creeping democracy, China also faced the same problems that the Middle East is now experiencing. Through a bloodbath and ruthless suppression of human rights, the Politburo was able to hold on to its current position. But similar to cancer, cells and seeds of democracy was already sown and the spawn of democracy continues (capitalism versus a centrally controlled economy). China officially is still in the hands of the usual apparatchiks, but democracy is already in play. In a decade or so, democracy will eventually take hold and that would be a great topic for another article.

The Middle East could borrow the Chinese model to prolong the status quo - but in the long run, democracy will still prevail. China equals Middle East (c = me)? Now that is a touch from an Einstein playbook...